Factors Predicting HBsAg Seroclearance and Alanine Transaminase Elevation in HBeAg-Negative Hepatitis B Virus-Infected Patients with Persistently Normal Liver Function

BACKGROUND A certain proportion of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients with persistently normal alanine transaminase (ALT) levels have significant fibrosis. Using liver stiffness measurements (Fibroscan®) and laboratory data, including serum ALT, quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg), and HBV DNA, we attempted to predict the natural histories of these patients. METHODS Non-cirrhotic HBeAg-negative chronic hepatitis B patients with persistently normal ALT were followed up prospectively with the end points of HBsAg seroclearance and ALT elevation above the upper limit of normal. The factors that were predictive of the end points were identified. RESULTS A total of 235 patients with an average age of 48.1 +/- 10.7 years were followed up for 7 years. Eight patients (3.4%) lost HBsAg, and 15 patients (6.4%) experienced ALT elevation. The overall cumulative HBsAg seroclearances were 0.4%, 1.3% and 2.3% at years 1, 3 and 5, respectively. Regarding HBsAg seroclearance, the qHBsAg (< 30 IU/ml) cutoff resulted in a hazard ratio (HR) of 19.6 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 2.2-166.7 (P = 0.008). The baseline ALT level (odd ratio (OR) 1.075, 95% CI 1.020-1.132, P = 0.006) and a qHBsAg above 1000 IU/ml (3.7, 1.1-12.4, P = 0.032) were associated with ALT elevation. Limited to men, the baseline liver stiffness (1.6, 1.0-2.5, P = 0.031) and a qHBsAg above 1000 IU/ml (10.4, 2.1-52.4, P = 0.004) were factors that were independently associated with ALT elevation. CONCLUSION A low qHBsAg level predicted HBsAg clearance. Baseline ALT and a qHBsAg above 1000 IU/ml were independent predictive factors for ALT elevation. Among the men, the independent predictive factors for ALT elevation were qHBsAg and liver stiffness.